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Forecasting & Modelling

Michael Carder Ltd work have managed projects and been responsible for developing forecasting models for the UK Government. Taking multiple work-streams, internal and external system variables as well as liaising with external agencies. Our models mapped complex business and human processes that were both critical to policy and political sensitive.

Forecasting People and Policy

Working with both Target Reporting Teams and Senior Civil Service policy directors on the Immigration Appeals Tribunal, we have developed suites of models that informed both business managers and government policy. Modelling unintended effects, flow processes, resources and event simulation helped us identify blockages and system improvements across the organisation and wider Immigration system.

  • Modelling multiple data streams
  • Linking to financial cost models
  • Presenting models for validation
  • Testing forecasts against real-world results
  • Highlighting salient findings
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Forecasting Tools

By developing forecasting tools in standard software such as Excel and modelling flow processes in systems such as iThink, we allow clients to easily understand assumptions and structure. Using simple structures allows users to challenge assumptions and test scenarios quickly.

  • Modelling in MS Excel, VBA, .Net
  • Process analysis in iThink
  • Linking to financial models
  • Presentation on web charts